Statistics Canada's November travel figures confirm what border communities and tourism operators have watched unfold for months: Canadians remain deeply reluctant to cross into the United States, even during periods historically associated with high cross-border traffic. The data, released this week, shows continued weakness in southbound travel despite the pull of U.S. Thanksgiving weekend and Black Friday shopping, events that typically drive significant Canadian retail tourism. The pattern has persisted throughout 2025, and November offered no reversal. Air return trips from the U.S. dropped 19.3% year-over-year, while car travel fell an even steeper 28.6%, marking the 11th consecutive month of declines in road crossings. These are not marginal shifts. They represent a fundamental change in Canadian travel behavior, driven by factors ranging from political unrest and economic uncertainty to a weakened Canadian dollar and heightened scrutiny at border crossings.
Snowbirds Provide Modest Counterbalance
There is one demographic showing resilience: Canadian snowbirds. According to a recent Snowbird Advisor survey, 70% of respondents indicated they will continue to visit the U.S. during the winter months. This cohort, typically older retirees with the flexibility and means to escape Canadian winters for extended stays in Florida, Arizona, and other Sun Belt destinations, appears less swayed by the political and economic headwinds affecting broader travel sentiment. That steadfastness matters. Snowbird travel represents a different economic footprint than weekend shoppers or short-term leisure visitors. These travelers book long-term rentals, spend on healthcare, dining, and services, and often return to the same communities year after year. Their continued presence provides some stabilization for U.S. destinations heavily reliant on Canadian winter tourism. But 70% is not 100%. Even among this traditionally dependable segment, three in ten are reconsidering. And critically, the snowbird cohort alone cannot offset the dramatic contraction in overall cross-border movement. The November figures make that clear.
What Canadian Spending Patterns Reveal
Statistics Canada's second-quarter data offers useful context for understanding how Canadians travel when they do cross into the U.S. Among visits recorded during that period, 39.1% were same-day trips, often shopping excursions or quick border-town visits. For these brief crossings, Canadian residents spent an average of $125 per visit. Overnight stays represent a different category entirely. For trips involving at least one night in the U.S., Canadian residents spent an average of $1,312 per visit, with the typical trip lasting 7.3 nights. These longer stays, whether for vacation, family visits, or snowbird season, carry significantly more economic weight for U.S. tourism operators. The problem is volume. Fewer Canadians are making either type of trip, and the decline in same-day crossings has been particularly severe. Border towns from Bellingham, Washington, to Plattsburgh, New York, have felt the absence acutely. Retailers, restaurants, and gas stations that depend on Canadian foot traffic have reported measurable revenue losses.
Why the Decline Persists
The reasons behind this sustained travel reluctance are well-documented. Political tensions between the two countries have soured public sentiment in Canada. Trade disputes, tariff threats, and inflammatory rhetoric have made many Canadians wary of traveling south. Surveys conducted earlier in 2025 showed half of Canadians cited political or leadership concerns as factors influencing their decision to avoid the U.S. Economic pressures compound the issue. The Canadian dollar has weakened significantly against the greenback, making U.S. travel more expensive. A trip that might have felt affordable two years ago now carries a substantial currency exchange penalty. For families on tight budgets, that shift is decisive. Border scrutiny has also intensified. Canadians report longer wait times, more invasive questioning, and increased anxiety about crossing. For some, the hassle outweighs the appeal. Safety concerns, particularly around gun violence and political instability in certain U.S. regions, have also influenced traveler psychology.
Where Canadians Are Going Instead
The decline in U.S. travel does not mean Canadians are staying home. Overseas travel by air rose 11.7% in November, according to Statistics Canada. Destinations like Mexico, Jamaica, the Bahamas, Puerto Rico, and Barbados have seen notable increases in Canadian arrivals. Barbados alone recorded 62,543 Canadian visitors in 2025, a meaningful uptick from prior years. These alternatives offer warmth, beaches, and a perceived distance from the political turbulence affecting the U.S. For many Canadians, they also feel like a statement: choosing to spend tourism dollars elsewhere.
What This Means for Cross-Border Tourism
The implications are significant for U.S. destinations that have historically relied on Canadian visitors. Even with the snowbird segment holding steady, the broader collapse in short-term and discretionary travel represents a structural challenge. Marketing campaigns and discount promotions have done little to reverse the trend. For travelers, the takeaway is practical: if you're crossing into the U.S. from Canada, expect lighter traffic, but also be prepared for heightened border scrutiny and longer processing times as resources adjust to lower volumes. For U.S. tourism operators, the data underscores the need to diversify visitor markets and recalibrate revenue expectations for the near term. The November numbers suggest this is not a temporary blip. Canadians are voting with their wallets, and for most, the U.S. is no longer the default destination.
About the Author
Jeff Colhoun
Jeff Colhoun is an acclaimed travel writer, photographer, and filmmaker, whose work is respected both in the United States and internationally.